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The Problem of Old Evidence in Bayesian Confirmation Theory: A Solution Based on the Difference Between Update and Justification

Author:

Chloé de Canson

LSE; University of Cambridge, GB
About Chloé

For helpful discussions on the topic and comments on this paper, I am greatful to John Worrall, Olivier Roy, Luc Bovens and Alexandru Marcoci.

BSc Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method (2012 - 2015). From October 2015, she will be reading the MPhil Philosophy. Her main areas of interest are in philosophy of science, philosophy of probability and logic.

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Abstract

In this paper, I discuss the problem of old evidence in Bayesian Confirmation Theory and attempt to build on a suggestion by Lange (1999) to provide a satisfactory solution. I present the problem, argue that it cannot be solved by the standard appeal to counterfactuals, and show that a modification of the Bayesian framework along the lines of what Lange proposes is necessary. Then, within that new framework, I show how the problem of old evidence can be solved.

How to Cite: de Canson, C., 2015. The Problem of Old Evidence in Bayesian Confirmation Theory: A Solution Based on the Difference Between Update and Justification. Rerum Causae, 7(1), pp.82–104.
Published on 01 Jan 2015.
Peer Reviewed

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